Another somewhat busted forecast yesterday. No wonder people don’t trust weather folk! We did have some morning showers across the metro, bur after that, nada. What happened? Sinking air once again the culprit. Once a disturbance moved through in the morning, sinking air on the back side of said disturbance put the kibosh (kibosh I tell you) on further development despite the National Weather Service hanging on to a 40% chance last night. Sigh. I’ll give News 4 Tucson Meteorologist Jeff Beamish credit. He nailed it on his Noon show! So what about today? Let’s take a stab at it! LOTS of moisture in place. Cloud cover too with a few light showers already this morning (half the calories of our regular showers). Another disturbance headed our way with just a little bit of heating through the cloud cover should be enough to get storms going this afternoon. Heavy rain possible too with all that juicy air in place. We’ll see! Mostly cloudy today with a 50% chance for showers and storms and a high near 90. Mostly cloudy tonight with a 30% chance and a low in the low 70s.

High pressure moving back our way for drier air, more sunshine, warmer temperatures, but still a slight chance for storms (except Sunday). 10%/30% tomorrow upper 90s. 20%/20% Saturday upper 90s. Mostly sunny Sunday 101ish. 20%/20% Monday 100. 20%/10% Tuesday 100. 10% Wednesday 100.

Sounds like it was a rockin’ night last night! I don’t know. I was asleep 🙂 I do know that there was a Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued last night a little after 11:00. No evidence of rain here in southern Oro Valley and no reports of actual severe weather. However. The airport picked up .90″ inches, so some of you had a good soaking! We do it again today through tomorrow night sans the severe. Soupy air with a disturbance in the force moving through and we can expect plenty of storm activity with locally heavy rain. Lots of cloud cover too, so highs not so high for this time of year in the low 90s today and tomorrow. Viva Monsoon 2018!

Drying out and warming up as we head into the weekend (boo) with upper 90s Friday and a 20% chance for storms (so not zero). Mostly sunny 20%/30% Saturday upper 90s. Upper 90s Sunday with just a 10% chance in the evening. 10%/20% Monday near 100ish. 20% Tuesday 99.

Well that was disappointing. Maybe there is something to this Monday the 13th thing! Nuthin’ but sunshine yesterday despite the Storm Prediction Center predicting a chance for severe storms. Sinking air with high pressure suppressed activity and we ended up with barely a cloud in the sky. That’s fixin’ to change today! High pressure has shifted a bit to the east and that should open the door for more moisture and the elimination of sinking air. Storms moving from the SE today, so forming on the mountains and to our south and east this afternoon and then moving our way by this evening. At least that’s the plan! So. 10% chance for storms in the Metro this afternoon and high near 98. Then a 30% chance for storms this evening/tonight with a low in the mid 70s.

But wait. There’s more! An inverted trough moving out of Mexico into southern Arizona tomorrow and Thursday should give Monsoon 2018 some extra umpf. (umph?) 50% chance for storms Wednesday and Wednesday night with locally heavy rainfall and a high in the low 90s! 30% chance for storms Thursday and Thursday night low 90s. High pressure shifting back to the west calming “things” down a bit Friday into the weekend. 20%/30% Friday and Saturday upper 90s. 20%/20% Sunday and Monday upper 90s.

A severe thunderstorm fell apart right before my eyes over Oro Valley last night. Big time rain last night across the southern part of town including Vail. You probably saw on the news that one person was killed on the south side when his car was swept away in a wash. Please. Enjoy Monsoon 2018 responsibly.

It is amazing on the deck this morning! Lots of sunshine should reload the atmosphere today for pretty much a repeat of yesterday. Storms forming over the White Mountains will make there way our way as the afternoon wears on for a chance of scattered storms this evening. Storms could form earlier mainly south and east of Tucson, but maybe one near you. Once again the Storm Prediction Center is saying we have a marginal threat for severe storms, so we could see a strong to severe storm or two this afternoon/evening. Tomorrow looks a lot like yesterday and today. Highs today and tomorrow in the upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

An uptick in activity Wednesday and Thursday as an inverted trough is forecast to move into southern Arizona out of Mexico. That will bring an increase of moisture as well as added lift for numerous storms perhaps lasting through the night Wednesday and Thursday nights! Heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Viva Monsoon 2018! Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.

Back to our “average” Monsoon activity Friday through the weekend with storm chances generally 20% to 30%. High Friday in the mid 90s. Upper 90s Saturday and Sunday.

Congratulations center of town. You did pretty well yesterday! I hope it didn’t put a damper on Second Saturday festivities downtown. Still. It’s nice to see a part of the Metro neglected by Monsoon 2018 receive some love. <3 It rained here in southern OV overnight, but skies have already cleared. Lots of sunshine today should reload the atmosphere for another round of storms this afternoon and evening. The Severe Storm Prediction Center even has us on the edge of a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon! With a 20% chance for storms this afternoon and evening we probably won’t see widespread activity, but be aware that a storm or two may become severe with damaging winds and hail the biggest threats. Upper 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows through Tuesday with isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening storms possible.

Storm chances ramp up big time Wednesday, and especially Wednesday night and Thursday! An inverted trough should give us the lift we need for an upswing in Monsoon 2018. 30%/50% Wednesday mid 90s/low 70s. 40%/30% Thursday low 90s. 30%/30% Friday mid 90s. 30% Saturday upper 90s. Viva Monsoon 2018!