Fire and Rain?!
After 80 days in a row without rain (5th longest streak in Tucson’s history) it looks like the Monsoon is revving up! Today’s forecast is for mostly sunny skies with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. High near 106. One thing about today’s rain chances. Dewpoints at the surface will still only be in the 40s and 50s, so showers will also be accompanied by gusty winds. A storm sparking a fire is not out of the question and the wind may fan the flames, especially if there is not a downpour in the specific area where this hypothetical fire starts. This is typical during the early part of the Monsoon and something to think about even as we celebrate a chance of storms.
Looking forward, we have a 30% chance of showers and storms before midnight tonight, otherwise partly cloudy with a low near 80.
Sunny and hot tomorrow with a high near 104. Sunny and hotter on Friday with a high near 108.
Then the moisture returns for the weekend. Saturday a 20% chance of showers and storms and hot with a high near 109. Sunday 106 with a 40% chance of showers and storms. 4th of July with a 30% chance of showers and storms and a high near 104.
Rain in the Forecast! Not necessarily good news…
I have good news and I have bad news. There is a slight chance of afternoon storms Wednesday of this week right through the 4th of July weekend. As is typical for this time of year, the moisture is slowly creeping our way from Mexico. As the moisture increases, so do our thunderstorm chances. (there are other factors involved, but you get the idea)
While rain in the forecast is good the bad news is that during the early part of Monsoon, storms are often more virga and wind then they are downpour. That’s because moisture levels are marginal for thunderstorm development and the surface dewpoints can still be on the low side. As the rain falls into the drier air, it evaporates. As the rain evaporates, the air cools. The cooler, denser air falls faster causing gusty winds when it hits the ground. In worse case scenarios you get a dry microburst with damaging winds over 60 mph.
Along with the gusty winds, the isolated storms also bring lightning. That can spark a fire with little rain to put it out and gusty winds to help fuel it. Just something to watch the next week or two as we wait for the Monsoon moisture to increase.
Once the Monsoon is full on we can expect drenching rains that our thirsty desert is longing for and maybe we can go hiking again!
Rainfall Totals for Tucson.
Not much but we'll take it! Almost everyone with a few one hundredths. However a couple places received around a quarter of an inch. We are still over 2" below average for the year officially. Here are the numbers from RainLog.org:
Winter Storm Watch Tonight & Sunday
From the National Weather Service office in Tucson:
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA- SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY- EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NOGALES...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY... MARANA...VAIL...MAMMOTH...ORACLE...SIERRA VISTA...BENSON... WILLCOX...CLIFTON...SAFFORD 228 AM MST SAT FEB 26 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING BETWEEN 4000 AND 7000 FEET. ALSO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT NOGALES... SONOITA...SIERRA VISTA...BISBEE...AND WITHIN THE TUCSON METRO AREA. * SNOW LEVELS...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT NEAR 7000 FEET SATURDAY EVENING THEN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO BELOW 3000 FEET. * WINDS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL INHIBIT TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY SERIOUSLY IMPACT TRAVEL. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL INTO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR DIFFICULT WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
One More Hard Freeze Warning
At least for this stretch of really cold weather. I imagine we’ll have another Hard Freeze Warning again sometime.
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO AREA-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SELLS...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY... MARANA...VAIL...MAMMOTH...ORACLE 157 PM MST FRI FEB 4 2011 ...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY... A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY. * TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S. * IMPACTS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE RUPTURED WATER PIPES...AND KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TO PREVENT FREEZING AND POSSIBLE BURSTING OF OUTDOOR WATER PIPES...THEY SHOULD BE WRAPPED...DRAINED...OR ALLOWED TO DRIP SLOWLY. THOSE THAT HAVE IN-GROUND SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD DRAIN THEM...AND COVER ABOVE-GROUND PIPES TO PROTECT THEM FROM FREEZING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
Tucson Breaks Another Record Low
18 again this morning. It’s the second coldest February morning in Tucson’s history. You have to go allll the way back to yesterday morning to find a February low so cold. Before that it was February 8, 1933. Douglas set a new record low this morning too. Here is the official report from the National Weather Service in Tucson:
RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 800 AM MST FRI FEB 04 2011 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT TUCSON AZ... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES WAS SET AT TUCSON AZ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 21 SET IN 1955. THIS CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY LOW TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...TIED WITH FEBRUARY 8 1933 AND YESTERDAY FEBRUARY 3 2011. ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT DOUGLAS AZ... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES WAS SET AT DOUGLAS AZ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 11 SET IN 1955. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES IS ALSO THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 5 DEGREES SET YESTERDAY FEBRUARY 3 2011.
Tucson Braces for the Coldest February Night Ever
Well at least for the 118 years they have been keeping records and if the forecast comes true. Still, the all-time record low for February was 17 set February 7, 1899 and the forecast is for a low of 15! Here are other records and the forecast for tomorrow morning for Tucson and surrounding communities:
LISTING OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AND DAILY RECORDS FOR FRIDAY:
DATE FEB 04
FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 15 21/1955
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 2 11/1955
AJO 23 22/1956
BOWIE 7 13/1955
CLIFTON 9 20/1964
FORT THOMAS 10 17/1964
KITT PEAK 10 20/1964
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 22 23/1956
PICACHO PEAK 21 33/2007
SAFFORD AG STATION 8 10/1955
SIERRA VISTA FD 8 20/1903
TOMBSTONE 7 18/1955
WILLCOX 3 9/1971
Recorded Live Report from My Deck and the Frozen Hummingbird Feeders
A sugar water frozen daiquiri may not sound appealing to you, but hummingbirds eat it up, especially when it’s all they can get on a record cold day. Mike is a silhouette reporting live on flash drive from the deck and the semi-frozen feeders:
How Cold Are We Starting February? COLD
Freezing!
BRRRRRrrrrrrrrr!
What an exciting day if you like weather and especially if you like really cold weather. Looks like today’s high will be 42, unless it dropped a degree from that official reading last night a 11:53. So far it looks like the afternoon high has been 38 with wind chills all day in the upper 20s! Even though the high was at midnight, it looks like we will break the record for the coldest high temperature for February 2nd. The old record was 43 set in 1956.
A HARD FREEZE WARNING remains in effect for tonight and it looks like we have a shot at both the record low for February 3rd and the all-time record low for February! The record low for tomorrow is 21 set in 1910. The forecast is for a low of 18! Very close to the all-time record low for February of 17 set on February 7, 1899.
Then we do it again tomorrow afternoon and Friday morning. The forecast high of 38 should easily break the record for the coldest high for February 3rd of 44 set in 1903. The forecast high of 38 is very close to the all-time coldest high recorded in February of 37 set February 6, 1899. The forecast low of 18 Friday morning, if it happens, will easily beat the record low of 21 set in 1955.
In other words, this cold outbreak rivals any ever to hit Tucson in the month of February! If you are complaining about the cold, don’t feel bad. This is very unusual indeed!
The Forecast Keeps Getting Colder!
The dewpoint has plunged and overnight lows are going down with it. Another surge of cold air is heading this way to reinforce the cold air in place. With the drier air, we actually got colder last night than expected. Tucson got down to 25 officially this morning. Gusty winds should relax overnight in the valley’s of southeastern Arizona allowing temperatures to plummet even more tonight. The National Weather Service has already issued a Hard Freeze Warning for tonight and tomorrow night and now they have dropped the expected lows for both overnight periods. The revisions are below. If this comes true, Tucson will set two record lows, both in the upper teens! Tomorrow’s high is now predicted to only be 38. If that comes true it will be second coldest high temperature ever in the 118 years they have been keeping records in Tucson. The coldest was 37 on February 6, 1899! Amazing.
LISTING OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AND DAILY RECORDS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY:
DATE FEB 03 FEB 04
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 18 21/1910 18 21/1955
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 4 10/1972 4 11/1955
AJO 24 22/1923 24 22/1956
BOWIE 8 11/1956 8 13/1955
CLIFTON 10 20/1939 12 20/1964
FORT THOMAS 11 7/1972 13 17/1964
KITT PEAK 10 18/1970 13 20/1964
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 22 25/1955 22 23/1956
PICACHO PEAK 20 32/1990 23 33/2007
SAFFORD AG STATION 10 13/1972 11 10/1955
SIERRA VISTA FD 11 14/1956 11 20/1903
TOMBSTONE 10 13/1956 10 18/1955
WILLCOX 4 8/1970 4 9/1971
